Damian Lillard trade scenarios with Heat, Clippers, 76ers

The relationship between Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers organization — really, the entire city of Portland — makes his trade request on Saturday more of an amicable divorce rather than the cold, mercenary decisions often seen when players are traded. That said, Portland wants a massive return for Lillard — a “star-level return package” is how Adrian Wojnarowski phrased it — and that doesn’t necessarily mean just picks and young players who need to be developed.

“We have been clear that we want Dame here but he notified us today he wants out and he’d prefer to play someplace else. What has not changed for us is that we’re committed to winning, and we are going to do what’s best for the team in pursuit of that goal,” Cronin’s statement read.

Lillard has reportedly made it clear he would like to play for the defending Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat next season.

Portland will listen to Lillard, and Miami will be given priority, but other teams are trying to get in the mix — Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Clippers specifically, but there are others. Let’s break down what trade scenarios look like from all of them.

MIAMI HEAT

Miami’s best straight-up offer for Lillard would be Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and two first-round picks (2028 and 2030). In this scenario, Portland would likely want to get off the three years, $54 million owed center Jusuf Nurkic, which means the Heat toss in Kyle Lowry (an expiring contract). Other players (Nikola Jovic) and picks or pick swaps could be involved, but two first-rounders, Herro and Robinson, would be the core of a deal.

That is not enough for the Trail Blazers, this would have to be a three-team trade.

Specifically, the Trail Blazers do not want Tyler Herro and his four years, $120 million contract that just kicked in today (July 1), league sources told NBC Sports. The third team would have to be willing to take on Herro and maybe other assets, and have picks and/or young players to help send to Portland.

Any number of rebuilding teams get mentioned here, but two teams to watch are the Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz. The Nets — a team the connected Chris Haynes has mentioned as a third team — would be open to the shot creation and shooting of Herro (the Nets just traded away Joe Harris) and they have picks to send out, but they are going to want value back, too. It could require Miami to put Caleb Martin into the mix to get a trade done.

One other team that could use shot creation/shooting in the backcourt and has picks to move: the Utah Jazz. This is just speculation on my part, I don’t know how interested Danny Ainge and company would be in Herro, but they fit the mold of a team the Heat could contact to draw into the deal.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

The Clippers are not on Lillard’s shortlist, but could he be talked into the Southern California sun rather than the South Beach sun? If the Clippers can put together a strong enough trade offer the Trail Blazers may start that conversation with the future Hall of Fame, suggesting playing with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George could get him a ring.

The Clippers are trying to negotiate a James Harden trade with Philadelphia, and Los Angeles needs to tap the breaks on those talks for one obvious reason — Lillard is much better than Harden right now. It’s not really close in the Year of our Lord 2023, Lillard is coming off an All-NBA season and Harden, while still impressive, is showing signs of decline. If Los Angles had to choose, they would choose Lillard 100 times out of 100.

Los Angeles’ best offer straight up would be Terance Mann (a must in a Lillard deal), Marcus Morris, probably Robert Covington (although it could be Norman Powell) and two first-round picks. Much like with the Heat packages, that will not be enough for Portland. Now the Clippers are in the same boat as the Heat trying to get a third team into the mix and things get complex. Once a third team is in play, is the Los Angeles offer demonstrably better than one from Miami? Because if it’s anywhere close the Trail Blazers will give Lillard what he wants.

This is the favorite of the Trade Machine jockeys, but the reality is much messier.

The most discussed scenario involves the Clippers again. It is a version of Lillard to Philadelphia to play next to Joel Embiid, Harden to the Clippers, and picks and young players back to Portland. Except, the Heat and Sixers have few interesting picks to trade so it would involve the Clippers giving up Mann and the 76ers giving up Tyrese Maxey. It doesn’t really work any other way, and it might be a bridge too far for Philly. As Zach Lowe asked on his podcast, if it is just Embiid and Lillard — no Tobias Harris or Maxey to make the trade work — are the 76ers really better off?

Also, if Portland doesn’t want the young guard contract of Herro, do they want the contracts of Mann and Maxey? If Portland is building around Scoot Henderson, why bring in guards that take the ball out of his hands?

SAN ANTONIO, BROOKLYN, OTHERS

The Spurs have generated a lot of buzz as a dark horse team in the Lillard race, and the idea of him playing with No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama is indeed tantalizing. San Antonio’s offer would be young players and picks: Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, other young players and a bunch of picks. That is not the “star level” return Trail Blazers GM Cronin talked about, but it’s not out of the question. The Spurs also could be the third team in a trade that gets Lillard to Miami, but does San Antonio want Herro?

The Nets also could be more than just a facilitator, with Haynes from TNT saying it was a team Lillard’s camp had an interest in. Brooklyn has a lot of picks that could be options, with Ben Simmons oversized contract being the ballast to get a trade done. Again, no star-level players going back (Lillard would want to play with Mikal Bridges), but it’s not impossible.