USD/JPY Price Rally Stalls at 137.90, Eying US ADP NFP

  • The USD/JPY pair is strongly bullish. A minor retreat could bring new long opportunities.
  • The US data should bring sharp movements later today.
  • The upper median line (uml) stands as a potential target.

The USD/JPY price rallied in the short term as the US dollar edged higher while the Japanese Yen continued struggling. The pair is trading at 137.72, below today’s high of 137.91.

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The currency pair gained by 1.75% from yesterday’s low of 135.53. After such an impressive rally, we cannot exclude a corrective downside.

Fundamentally, Powell’s remarks boosted the USD. The greenback soared against all of its rivals across the board. Today, the Japanese economic data came in mixed. Economy Watchers’ Sentiment jumped from 48.5 points to 52.0 points, above the 49.1 points expected. Leading Indicators came in at 96.5%, Current Account was reported at 0.22T versus 0.80T expected, while Bank Lending rose by 3.3%.

Later, the US data and the BoC represent high-impact events and could be decisive. The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected at 197K in the last month versus 106K in January. JOLTS Job Openings could drop from 11.01M to 10.58M, while Trade Balance may drop from -67.4B to -68.7 B. In addition, the Bank of Canada should keep the Overnight rate at 4.50%. Still, the BoC Rate Statement could also greatly impact the USD.

USD/JPY price technical analysis: Strong bullish momentum

Technically, the USD/JPY pair tested the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork before extending its leg higher. This is seen as dynamic support. So, as long as it stays above it, the price should resume its uptrend. Its failure to reach and retest the 135.25 signaled strong buyers. Now, it has escaped from the range pattern between 135.25 and 136.91. Breaking above 136.91 signaled an upside continuation. The price has reached the weekly R2 (137.90), which acts as a static resistance.

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Technically, a correction is due before developing a new bullish momentum. Coming back to test the immediate support and demand zones could bring new long opportunities. The upper median line (uml) is seen as a major upside target if the price continues to rise.

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