The 2023-24 NBA season is near, so at the end of another eventful summer we take our annual trip too close to the sun, daring you to stand the swelter of these views. This is Hot Takes We Might Actually Believe.
What makes a Most Valuable Player in the NBA? You will not find anything close to a consensus from the 100-member media voting panel about whether the MVP belongs to the consensus best player, the most productive player of the season, the best player on the best team or the player who adds the most value.
The closest thing to a definition you will find is some vague description of the right player on the right team in the right season or, more likely, “I know it when I see it,” and I’m here to tell you it is Jayson Tatum’s time.
Looking at the breakout MVP campaigns of the NBA’s active winners (excluding Derrick Rose, an outlier in every way), they entered that season on average as 26-year-old three-time All-NBA selections who climbed the ranks in two previous years to between sixth and fourth in the voting. Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and LeBron James then won their first MVP awards with averages of 45 combined points, rebounds and assists per game on 62.3% true shooting for 59-win teams. This is the average barrier to entry for the most recent first-time winners.
Well, Tatum is a 25-year-old three-time All-NBA selection (twice on the first team) who finished sixth and fourth in MVP voting the last two seasons. He averaged 30-9-5 last season on 60.7% true shooting for a 57-win team, and the Celtics have added two complementary All-Stars who should augment Tatum’s efficiency. If you do not believe Tatum can be the guy, it is because you believe players plateau at age 23.
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Remember, a 23-year-old Tatum beat Durant, Antetokounmpo and Jimmy Butler en route to the NBA Finals, before struggling in a six-game series loss to Curry. Excuses don’t win awards, but to paint the full picture of that postseason: Tatum played the entirety of those playoffs with a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist and much of the last two rounds with an injury to his shooting shoulder.
(Tatum was also “a shell of myself” after badly spraining his ankle on the opening play of last season’s Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, a loss that prevented him from reaching a second straight Finals. Which is to say, if he is not already, at the very least, Tatum is on the precipice of being one of the guys.)
Tatum is on pace to become the sixth player in NBA history to score 12,000 career points by the end of his age-25 season, joining James, Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady and Kobe Bryant. Three of them won MVPs, and Anthony didn’t because James and Durant existed. Keep in mind, three of them also entered the NBA out of high school, and Tatum has played in two pandemic-shortened seasons.
Let us say that again: The two most recent scoring comparisons for Tatum’s trajectory are LeBron James and Kevin Durant. James won the first of his four MVP awards in his sixth season, two years removed from his first Finals appearance. Durant won his sole MVP award in his seventh season, two years from his first Finals appearance. And Tatum is entering his seventh season … two years from his first Finals appearance.
There is another aspect of Tatum’s game that might separate him. He told The Messenger’s Jeff Goodman last month, “I want to make an All-Defensive Team. That’s what I want.” That could elevate him from the six-pack of players who averaged 30 points per game last season. Tatum has received All-Defensive votes in two of the last four seasons. If he recommits to wreaking havoc on that end, it will only help his MVP cause.
Tatum is currently fourth in preseason MVP odds (+700) behind Jokić (+450), Antetokounmpo (+550) and Luka Dončić (+600), according to BetMGM, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he should be higher. Fatigue, for one. Jokić and Antetokounmpo are both recent back-to-back winners of the award, and voters are always keeping one eye on who lays in wait. (Case in point: Embiid’s victory over Jokić last season.)
I will not argue against Jokić as the best player alive. He earned that moniker by bulldozing the league on his way to a championship as an encore to consecutive MVP awards. The taxing nature of Jokić’s last three years might also lead the Denver Nuggets to limit his workload during the regular season. The same could be said about Antetokounmpo, who is entering Year 11 of his career and played 63 games last season — short of this year’s new 65-game threshold to qualify for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA.
That threshold should make All-NBA look funky this season. Five members of last year’s All-NBA roster played fewer than 65 games, and another six came within a handful of games falling below the cutoff, including Embiid, Jokić and Dončić. The three players who finished ahead of Tatum in last season’s MVP voting averaged 66 games, and the Celtics star has never missed more than eight games in any season.
Tatum’s extra games played last season made him the league’s leader in total points scored (2,225). Among active players, only James, Durant, Harden, Curry and Westbrook — MVPs all — have exceeded that total.
Add Tatum’s All-Defensive ambition, and he is at least drafting the résumé of an MVP, especially if Boston exceeds its projected over/under of 54.5 regular-season wins. The Celtics are one of five teams projected to win 50 or more games, along with Milwaukee (54.5), Denver (52.5), Phoenix (51.5) and Cleveland (50.5).
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Westbrook snapped a 35-year streak of the MVP coming from a team that won at least 50 games (or the equivalent) and banked a top-two record in its conference. The last three MVPs have come from two No. 3 seeds and a sixth seed. Maybe the voting bloc is leaning less on wins as a vital value-added proposition, but with a quartet of stacked teams so clearly favored to lead their conferences and contend for the title, it would be surprising to see this year’s MVP come from any team but the Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets or Suns.
Dončić’s cause is hurt by last season’s 11th-place finish. His Dallas Mavericks should be improved, but enough to resemble the 2021-22 campaign, when they finished 52-30 and reached the Western Conference finals? Dončić placed fifth in MVP voting that year. He also did not have to share the ball with Kyrie Irving.
The same could be said of Tatum, who now shares a court with Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday in addition to Jaylen Brown. Tatum and Dončić are not alone in this regard. The Celtics, Bucks and Suns all feature two of the 16 players who finished last season with usage rates higher than 30%. Jokić (27.2%) and Jamal Murray (26.1%) are different animals, orchestrating Denver’s efficient and egalitarian system.
It would be surprising to see Tatum’s usage dip below 30% this season, and he, too, could benefit from the wealth of talent around him. Boston’s spacing should present more open shots, whether Tatum takes them or finds teammates to boost his assist numbers. Tatum does not need much growth to reach the rarified air of a highly efficient 30-10-5 season, and if he does that as an elite defender for the best team in the league, it will take an act of God — or Nikola Jokić, the nearest to Him in the NBA — to keep Tatum from the award.
