Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander? 10 scouts/execs weigh in on who they’d prefer

Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander?

Since the Mets have an interest in re-signing deGrom and have met with Verlander, The Athletic polled 10 scouts/executives on the question: If money were no object, which pitcher would you rather have for the next two years?

Most of them prefaced their answers with the same caveat. They said it was tough. Really tough. Really, really tough. That’s because both pitchers can be considered generational talents and both carry risk as free agents. Do you go with Verlander, who will turn 40 in February and returned from Tommy John surgery to produce a major-league-best 1.75 ERA in 175 innings while winning the AL Cy Young Award? Or deGrom, the game’s most dominant pitcher when healthy, who turns 35 in June and was limited to 156 1/3 innings the past two seasons because of a variety of injuries?

One evaluator analyzed the question in a way that underscores the quandary: When comparing two pitchers at high levels with slim margins, is quality better than quantity?

“Does the value of deGrom being on the mound when he’s healthy negate what you might lose in some IL stints and how you’d have to juggle workload management and how that impacts the rest of your staff?” the evaluator said. “To me, I would roll the dice on deGrom.”

Most agreed. Participants were granted anonymity to shield them from tipping off their respective clubs’ plans and to encourage more candor in sharing their rationale. The vote went 7-3, with the majority choosing deGrom.

“When you have this guy who possesses the best stuff across the board in all of baseball — and they both are probably going to get similar deals in respect to the years and terms — I would just roll the dice that what you’re getting in deGrom is potentially organization-changing,” the same evaluator said.

“No one dominates like him when he’s healthy,” a top executive from one club said.

“deGrom is the best starter in baseball,” one special assignment scout said, “and he showed it when he came back this season.”

After coming off the IL on Aug. 2, deGrom produced a 3.07 ERA in 12 starts, including one in the postseason. His strikeout rate was 42.7 percent. His walk rate was only 3.3 percent. To put that 39.3 K/BB% in perspective, consider the qualified leader for the statistic: Shohei Ohtani’s 26.5 percent.

Through deGrom’s first seven starts and 43 1/3 innings of 2022, he had a 1.66 ERA/1.38 FIP. Over his final four starts and 21 innings, he looked more human, allowing a few more home runs than usual and getting hurt by some poor luck with a 6.00 ERA/3.68 FIP. None of the people polled were worried about that, though. One chalked it up to deGrom just being on a different calendar at the time.

“He hit a lull, but guys go through that during the season,” an evaluator said. “I guarantee you, though, if it was a different time and the season kept going on, he would’ve built up the workload to where he would have finished two months later very strong. That’s how guys are built. When that happens in July for a few starts, it is less magnified.”

That same special assignment scout said he could think of several arguments for either pitcher, but if he thought he could get 170 innings from each, he’d pick deGrom.

That’s the thing, though. Can both be counted on for a similar workload?

The dissenting opinions said no and pointed to deGrom’s injuries. After forearm issues plagued him in the second half of 2021, a stress fracture in deGrom’s scapula ahead of 2022 cost him four months. He went more than one year without throwing a major-league pitch until he returned on Aug. 2.

“Verlander will make more starts and deGrom’s injuries scare me,” one former professional scout said.

It’s worth noting, too, that as great as deGrom is with prolific swing-and-miss stuff, Verlander understands who he is as a pitcher as good or better than anyone, another scout said, noting the right-hander’s multiple plus-pitches and durability. Since Verlander essentially didn’t pitch in all of 2020 and 2021, the Astros were careful in their usage of him. He made 23 of his 28 starts on five or more days’ rest. He also missed time with an injured right calf from Aug. 30 to Sept. 16. He had a 1.17 ERA over his final four regular-season starts, and while he was inconsistent in the postseason, he managed to capture his first World Series victory.

“He’s the rare type of pitcher where age just doesn’t matter anymore and it’s amazing for a pitcher to rebound so well from a major surgery at this age,” one scout said. “Hard to bet against him for one or two more seasons.”

In defending a vote for Verlander, a club executive said, “My Plan A would be Verlander. He’s both an ace and a bulldog. He’s the better bet to make 28 starts.”

Nearly everyone acknowledged that Verlander may throw more innings over the next two years. It’s hard to say by how much, though. If it wasn’t more than, say, three or four starts, the consensus preferred the perceived higher quality from deGrom.

“This is not a knock on Verlander, but I just think deGrom brings a little more to the table on pure stuff,” one evaluator said. “The caveat is that Verlander probably posts up better and you get more innings out of Verlander. But the innings you get out of deGrom are serious impact innings. And you roll the dice on what if this guy stays healthy for the term of his contract. A lot of teams need impact. You go out and get the most impactful guy even if you know, like, hey, he may only make like 26 starts this year. I’d rather have those 26 starts.”

These scouts and execs weren’t privy to the Mets’ plans for the offseason, so they answered the question more in a vacuum, and not with the context of which direction New York should take. For what it’s worth, The Athletic projected deGrom to land four years and $148 million total while pegging Verlander’s next contract at two years and $87 million. Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown he will continue to spend. It’s possible the Mets sign one of the pitchers. It’s possible they end up with neither — the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees loom as speculative landing spots for Verlander while the Rangers could make a play for deGrom. It’s also possible that free-agent Carlos Rodón, 29, might be the better value at starting pitcher, even though he’s a Scott Boras client coming off a career year. And it’s worth acknowledging, in the context of the Mets, that there’s probably some value in keeping a generational talent like deGrom in Flushing for the entirety of his career.

In picking between Verlander and deGrom, the group of scouts and executives said it also depends on the look of the staff they’d be joining. Perhaps a rotation that already has more risk would be better with the few more projected starts from Verlander, one scout said, but even so, it’d still be hard to pass on deGrom. The Mets’ rotation presently consists of Max Scherzer, who is 38, and Carlos Carrasco, who in February will turn 36. Their other internal options include the less-established David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez. With Scherzer, closer Edwin Díaz and a few All-Stars in their lineup, the Mets are looking to continue to win now with an eye toward sustainability. While their farm system catches up, they can spend on free agency to help bridge the gap to long-term winning. Clearly, there’s a need for another top starter, and the next couple of seasons are vital. Verlander is a worthy alternative even if between the two deGrom has the edge.

“Verlander will probably be the ace of at least 25 of the 30 staffs, but deGrom is the ace of 30 out of 30,” an evaluator said. “You can make the argument that Scherzer is the ace even with deGrom there. But he’s definitely the ace with Verlander there. So, if you have the inventory depth behind deGrom, it’s all about the culture change he brings with deGrom being the best in the game every fifth day or sixth day taking the ball for you.”

(Top photo of Jacob deGrom: Brad Penner / USA Today)